Weekly Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis (Sep 30th ~ Oct 06th, 2024)

Disclaimer: The following content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The strategies and techniques discussed here are based on general knowledge and are intended to enhance understanding of various market concepts. Readers should conduct their own research and consider seeking advice from a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided does not account for individual circumstances, financial objectives, or risk tolerance.

1. Market Overview

• Current Price: $64,517.85 (as of 12 PM UTC +8)
• Trend: Uptrend from $63,800 to $66,400
• Consolidation: Ongoing between $62,800 and $65,000
• Market Sentiment: Bullish

Bitcoin has shown a clear uptrend over the past few days, bouncing from a low of approximately $62,500 to a high near $66,400. The asset is making higher lows and higher highs, indicating strong buying pressure. Although the price pulled back slightly from the recent high near $66,400, Bitcoin has maintained its upward structure, trading at $64,415.

This suggests bullish momentum, with buyers stepping in at key levels to support the price. However, the asset also faces some overhead resistance near the $66,400 level, a point to watch for any further gains or potential rejection.

2. Key Technical Indicators

Name	Value	Signal
Relative Strength Index (14)	55.00	Neutral
Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3)	63.00	Neutral
MACD Level (12, 26)	1,070.00	Sell
Exponential Moving Average (10)	61,353.00	Buy
Exponential Moving Average (20)	61,170.00	Buy
Exponential Moving Average (30)	59,575.00	Buy
Exponential Moving Average (50)	55,041.00	Buy
Simple Moving Average (50)	55,405.00	Buy
Simple Moving Average (100)	40,147.00	Buy
Simple Moving Average (200)	39,531.00	Buy
Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26)	61,167.00	Neutral
Volume Weighted Moving Average (20)	62,320.00	Buy
Overall		Buy

3. Support and Resistance Levels

P = Pivot point

S1 2 3 4 = Support level 1, 2, 3, 4

R1 2 3 4 = Resistant level 1, 2, 3, 4

Open: $63,643.10

High: $66,480.70

Low: $62,628.08

Close: $65,887.65

Pivot	S4	S3	S2	S1	P	R1	R2	R3	R4
Classic		45,987.9	52,606.1	59,224.3	61,671.9	65,842.5	68,290.1	74,908.3
Fibonacci		55,053.7	57,581.9	59,143.8	61,671.9	64,200.1	65,761.9	68,290.1
DeMark		53,829.9	55,665.6	60,448.1	62,283.8	67,066.3	68,902.0	73,684.5
Camarilla	59,754.8	61,574.8	62,181.5	62,788.2		64,001.5	64,608.2	65,214.8	67,034.8

4. Volume Analysis

The volume indicates that BTC experienced strong buying interest as the price approached the $62,500 level, reflected in the increasing volume around the 26th and 27th of September. The volume spikes during upward moves are encouraging for bulls, suggesting that the price increases are supported by solid buying pressure.

However, the volume has somewhat decreased during the minor pullback from $66,400, indicating that the selling pressure is relatively weak and buyers may still be in control.

• Volume Spike: The highest volume was seen during the uptrend on the 27th of September when BTC rallied from approximately $62,800 to $65,800, signaling strong participation from buyers.
• Current Volume: As of now, volume has tapered off, which is typical during a minor pullback in a broader uptrend. Traders should watch for a volume increase for confirmation of the next price move.

5. Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment appears to be bullish in the short term, given Bitcoin’s consistent upward trend and higher lows. The ability to break and hold above $63,800 after facing some volatility suggests that buyers are defending key levels, and there is interest in accumulating BTC at current prices.

The recent higher high near $66,400 suggests that Bitcoin could challenge new highs if it breaks this resistance level. However, the slight pullback from $66,400 indicates that this level is critical, and traders should watch carefully for either a breakout or further consolidation.

Bullish Indicators:

• Higher Lows: Bitcoin has been forming a consistent pattern of higher lows, indicating strong buyer interest at lower levels.
• Uptrend Support: The uptrend line and the bounce from $62,500 are well-supported by volume.

Bearish Indicators:

• Resistance Near $66,400: BTC has struggled to break through this level, which could act as a short-term ceiling if selling pressure increases.
• Decreasing Volume: As price rises toward $66,400, volume is tapering off, which may indicate exhaustion of buying momentum.

6. Trading Strategy

Given the clear uptrend and strong buying support, traders can adopt a strategy focusing on buying dips, or look for a breakout trade if Bitcoin can decisively break through resistance near $66,400.

Strategy 1: Buy the Dips (Swing Trading)

• Entry Point: Look to buy near support levels around $63,800 or on any deeper pullback toward $62,500. These levels have proven to be areas where buyers step in.
• Target Price: Aim for a target near $66,400 or higher if Bitcoin successfully tests this resistance level again.
• Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss orders below $62,500 to minimize risk in case of a breakdown.

Strategy 2: Breakout Trading

• Bullish Entry: Enter long positions if Bitcoin breaks and holds above the $66,400 resistance level with strong volume confirmation. This would signal the continuation of the uptrend and could open up a target range between $67,000 and $68,000.
• Bearish Entry: If Bitcoin fails to hold above $64,000 and volume increases on the downside, consider short positions targeting $63,000 or $62,500. However, in the broader context, this would still be a retracement within an overall bullish trend.

Strategy 3: Scalping

• With Bitcoin in an uptrend, scalpers can take advantage of intraday volatility by entering near support (around $64,000) and exiting near resistance ($66,000–$66,400).
• Tight stop-losses and quick exits should be employed in this strategy to minimize risk.

7. Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently showing strong bullish momentum, supported by higher lows and rising volume on key upswings. Resistance at $66,400 will be a critical level to watch for potential further gains, and traders can look to buy dips or capitalize on a breakout above this level.

While sentiment remains bullish, caution is warranted around the $66,400 resistance level, as failure to break this level could lead to a consolidation or pullback. Volume will be key in confirming the next significant price movement.